At the Iranian embassy in Kyiv, a salmon-pink mansion on a street close to the presidential administration, there were several open days last week for anyone who wished to come and sign a book of condolences in memory of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, killed in the US-Israeli air strikes on Tehran.
Inside, candles lined the floor and mournful music played, as diplomats ushered the way to a room with a portrait of Khamenei and the book to sign. There was, however, no queue of well-wishers.
It might come as a surprise that the embassy still functions at all, given that residents of Kyiv have spent many nights over the last four years listening to the grating roar of Iranian-designed Shahed drones in the skies overhead, transferred by Tehran to its close ally Russia. But nothing is clear-cut when it comes to how the new conflict in the Middle East overlays on Ukraine’s fight against the Russian invasion.
Among the positives for Kyiv, there is a rise in interest in the Ukrainian experience and technology for battling against Shaheds – now being used by Iran to attack its Gulf neighbours – which could lead to new defence partnerships. Conversely, there are now several rich nations ready to boost their air defence spending, meaning there could be less for Ukraine in a market that is already stretched.
More broadly, the attention of the White House is now elsewhere, perhaps drawing momentum away from the peace talks process between Ukraine and Russia, and the attack on Iran seems to reinforce Vladimir Putin’s view of the world, in which stronger nations can target their weaker adversaries with impunity.
Oleksii Reznikov, a former defence minister of Ukraine, said: “When DC started this war, Putin smiled in the Kremlin. He can show that his doctrine of ‘might is right’ was doable after all. The world is changing.” Reznikov has just returned to Kyiv after being stranded in Israel for several days. He had been due to return from a conference when the military operation started and airspace was closed.
For Ukraine, said Reznikov, the conflict provided simultaneous “risks and opportunities”. The new interest in Ukrainian experience and technology could be helpful, but also put further strain on the global market for air defence capabilities. He said: “Everyone is interested in interceptor drones but we need these interceptors. Maybe these countries will invest money in Ukrainian production, which would be a good thing.”
Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said he would be open to a scheme of swapping relatively cheap and flexible Ukrainian-made interceptor drones for the much more expensive Patriot air-defence missiles, which protect from missiles and of which Ukraine has a chronic shortage, but it is not clear if there would be any takers. He has also offered to share Ukrainian experience. The Guardian understands that delegations from a number of Gulf countries have visited Kyiv in recent days on fact-finding missions; while Zelenskyy has held telephone consultations with several Gulf leaders.
The Ukrainian president said: “We received signals from partners in the Middle East. There have been strikes by Iranian Shaheds on civilians in those countries. They are seeking our expertise. We are open. If their representatives come, we will provide the expertise. Especially since there is also a request from Europeans and from the United States.”
Moscow has so far taken a careful approach in how it responds to the brazen strikes on its ally Iran, and if the US-Israeli strikes lead to a prolonged conflict in the Middle East, the resulting rise in oil prices could give a much-needed boost to Putin’s flagging war economy, which still depends on oil exports despite severe western sanctions. Analysts have said that a continued slowing of the economy this year could potentially force Putin to reconsider some of his war aims.
“The war that is under way is not our war,” Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesperson, said last week. “We must do what corresponds to our interests. We must secure benefits for ourselves where this is possible.”
According to intelligence sources quoted by several US outlets last week, that includes sharing targeting data with Iran about the location of US forces. If true, Kyiv will hope this might finally push the Trump administration towards viewing Moscow as a clear-cut adversary, although Trump’s public response to the claims so far has been to dismiss them as unimportant.
A European intelligence official said the idea of Russia sharing such data with Iran seemed to be at odds with what is known about the Kremlin’s policy towards the Trump administration. They said: “Russia is definitely not sending military aid to Iran, they are trying to sit on the fence in order to keep their ‘negotiations’ with the US on track. So in this regard, sharing intelligence on US targets does not seem like it fits with their policy as we see it.”
While it is not year clear exactly how the US military action will affect the battlefield and geopolitical dynamics around the Russia-Ukraine conflict, there are few Ukrainians who would mourn the late Ayatollah or the regime he served.
Iranian embassies around the globe, just as in Kyiv, opened condolences books in memory of Khamenei. Olexander Scherba, Ukraine’s ambassador to South Africa, decided to make public his response to the local Iranian embassy after receiving an invite to sign.
He wrote: “Your leaders were complicit in bringing endless grief to Ukrainian civilians. As someone who has spent three years to the tune of Iran-created machines of death howling every night in the sky over Kyiv and other peaceful Ukrainian cities, I cannot help but wish for every culprit to meet the justice they deserve.”